 |
| Chance of damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years, with areas colored red the most likely. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000. USGS image |
THE CHANCE IS MORE THAN 90% THAT HAWAI'I ISLAND IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DAMAGING GROUND SHAKING from an earthquake in the next century, according to a new model from U.S. Geological Survey, released just before Christmas. The chance is more than 90 percent for this island, Maui, Kaho'olawe and part of Lana'i, and 75 percent to 90 percent for half of Lana'i and all of Moloka'i, The risk drops off to 25 percent to 75 percent for O'ahu and under 25 percent for Kaua'i.
The creators of the new model note that "Hawai’i is a seismically active state, as indicated by the thousands of earthquakes recorded each year by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Damaging ground shaking has occurred over the decades, with two M6.7+ earthquakes in 2006 and 2018 and most recently a M5.2 earthquake on July 5, 2021 that was felt by more than 1300 people and a M6.2 earthquake on October 10, 2021 that was felt by more than 3500 people.
"Earthquakes are often associated with volcanic activity and, therefore, monitoring current volcanic activity (e.g., Kilauea volcano has been erupting since September 29, 2021) is important as it could lead to large earthquakes," says the report.
The updated ground shaking model, published on-line in the journal Earthquake Spectra, shows a 90% chance that the 345,000 people on the islands of Hawai’i and Maui could experience damaging levels of shaking during the next 100 years. A lower but significant chance of damaging shaking is expected across O'ahu; within the southeastern portion of the island near Honolulu there is a greater than 50% chance of damaging shaking occurring during this period. Levels of shaking on the southernmost islands are comparable to shaking levels expected across portions of coastal California.
The creators of the new model note that "Hawai’i is a seismically active state, as indicated by the thousands of earthquakes recorded each year by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Damaging ground shaking has occurred over the decades, with two M6.7+ earthquakes in 2006 and 2018 and most recently a M5.2 earthquake on July 5, 2021 that was felt by more than 1300 people and a M6.2 earthquake on October 10, 2021 that was felt by more than 3500 people.
"Earthquakes are often associated with volcanic activity and, therefore, monitoring current volcanic activity (e.g., Kilauea volcano has been erupting since September 29, 2021) is important as it could lead to large earthquakes," says the report.
The updated ground shaking model, published on-line in the journal Earthquake Spectra, shows a 90% chance that the 345,000 people on the islands of Hawai’i and Maui could experience damaging levels of shaking during the next 100 years. A lower but significant chance of damaging shaking is expected across O'ahu; within the southeastern portion of the island near Honolulu there is a greater than 50% chance of damaging shaking occurring during this period. Levels of shaking on the southernmost islands are comparable to shaking levels expected across portions of coastal California.
 |
| Earthquake sources on the Island of Hawaii include (1) locations of shallow Quaternary faults (solid lines, colors represent age of faulting), (2) locations of places where deep faults (décollements) are known (dashed lines), and (3) locations of volcanoes (triangles). Large M>6 earthquakes with dates and magnitudes shown in table below figure. USGS image |
“The previous hazard model was developed over 20 years ago and since that time we have experienced several large earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and have collected deformation, soil, and strong motion data that can be used to improve this forecast,” said Mark Petersen, USGS research geophysicist and lead author of the publication. “We collaborated with scientists and engineers across Hawaii and the rest of the U.S. to build these models. The new seismic hazard maps can be used to update building codes and other planning documents which should improve seismic safety across Hawai’i.”
The map and publication feature new earthquake catalogs, assessments of activity on active faults using geologic and geodetic (GPS) measurements, and evaluations of strong shaking data to define the ground shaking levels expected from earthquakes on the Hawaiian Islands.
Ground shaking is forecasted to be highest near the active volcanos of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa in the southernmost portion of the Island of Hawai‘i (Figure 2). Here magmatic activity pushes the crust outward toward the ocean along a nearly horizontal fault located about 6 miles (10 kilometers) beneath the surface. Large earthquakes occurred on this zone in 1868, 1975, 2018 and 2021. The 2018 earthquake was followed by a volcanic sequence that included numerous seismogenic collapses of Kīlauea volcano’s summit crater floor. These provided data that helped define the shaking levels predicted by the model.
“Repeated collapses of the volcanic caldera may have also caused damaging ground shaking during the 2018 volcanic eruption, so a new model was developed to evaluate this “Repeated collapses of the volcanic caldera may have also caused damaging ground shaking during the 2018 volcanic eruption, so a new model was developed to evaluate this risk,” said Petersen.
While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased compared to the preceding century which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa (Figure 3). Variations in earthquake activity are considered in the new models with the expectation that earthquake activity could revert back to previous levels or continue at the current level.
Forecasted shaking levels on the islands to the northwest of Maui are lower, and damaging earthquakes are less common since this region is farther from the magma source that currently lies beneath the Island of Hawai‘i. Earthquakes in this region result from bending of the earth’s crust due to the weight of overlying volcanos and from nearby oceanic fracture zones.
“The Hawai’i Earthquake and Tsunami Advisory Committee thanks the USGS and University of Hawaii at Mānoa for their close collaboration in updating the seismological science since the previous hazard model was considered,” said Rhett Butler.
Despite less frequent earthquake activity and a lower chance of damaging shaking, earthquakes on the northern part of the Island of Hawai'i and on Maui, the islands of Lānaʻi, Moloka'i, O'ahu, Kaua'i and Ni'ihau are still possible and can occur at depths that range from near the surface down to 25 miles (40 kilometers). A deep earthquake in 2006 occurred at a depth of about 18 miles (29 kilometers) and was strongly felt on the northern portion of the Island of Hawai'i and on Maui, causing extensive damage and losses. Other deep earthquakes occurred in 1938 near Maui, 1929 near Hualālai, and 1973 near Homomū. A large earthquake in 1871 near Lāna‘i is thought to have ruptured an oceanic fracture zone, and a 1948 earthquake near O‘ahu caused minor damage in Honolulu. These earthquakes signal the lower but significant risk to the northwestern portion of the Hawaiian island chain.
The map and publication feature new earthquake catalogs, assessments of activity on active faults using geologic and geodetic (GPS) measurements, and evaluations of strong shaking data to define the ground shaking levels expected from earthquakes on the Hawaiian Islands.
Ground shaking is forecasted to be highest near the active volcanos of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa in the southernmost portion of the Island of Hawai‘i (Figure 2). Here magmatic activity pushes the crust outward toward the ocean along a nearly horizontal fault located about 6 miles (10 kilometers) beneath the surface. Large earthquakes occurred on this zone in 1868, 1975, 2018 and 2021. The 2018 earthquake was followed by a volcanic sequence that included numerous seismogenic collapses of Kīlauea volcano’s summit crater floor. These provided data that helped define the shaking levels predicted by the model.
“Repeated collapses of the volcanic caldera may have also caused damaging ground shaking during the 2018 volcanic eruption, so a new model was developed to evaluate this “Repeated collapses of the volcanic caldera may have also caused damaging ground shaking during the 2018 volcanic eruption, so a new model was developed to evaluate this risk,” said Petersen.
 |
| Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa. USGS image |
Forecasted shaking levels on the islands to the northwest of Maui are lower, and damaging earthquakes are less common since this region is farther from the magma source that currently lies beneath the Island of Hawai‘i. Earthquakes in this region result from bending of the earth’s crust due to the weight of overlying volcanos and from nearby oceanic fracture zones.
“The Hawai’i Earthquake and Tsunami Advisory Committee thanks the USGS and University of Hawaii at Mānoa for their close collaboration in updating the seismological science since the previous hazard model was considered,” said Rhett Butler.
Despite less frequent earthquake activity and a lower chance of damaging shaking, earthquakes on the northern part of the Island of Hawai'i and on Maui, the islands of Lānaʻi, Moloka'i, O'ahu, Kaua'i and Ni'ihau are still possible and can occur at depths that range from near the surface down to 25 miles (40 kilometers). A deep earthquake in 2006 occurred at a depth of about 18 miles (29 kilometers) and was strongly felt on the northern portion of the Island of Hawai'i and on Maui, causing extensive damage and losses. Other deep earthquakes occurred in 1938 near Maui, 1929 near Hualālai, and 1973 near Homomū. A large earthquake in 1871 near Lāna‘i is thought to have ruptured an oceanic fracture zone, and a 1948 earthquake near O‘ahu caused minor damage in Honolulu. These earthquakes signal the lower but significant risk to the northwestern portion of the Hawaiian island chain.
To read comments, add your own, and like this story, see www.facebook.com/kaucalendar/. See latest print edition at kaucalendar.com.
THE HIGHEST DAILY COVID CASE COUNT IN HAWAI'I COUNTY TO DATE is expected on Thursday. Early estimates from the State Department of Health indicate the potential for more than 220 cases to be reported. The highest case count to date was 206 cases, which was attributed to the onset of the Delta variant. Although counts continue to rise, hospitalizations are stable islandwide. Currently, nine COVID patients are hospitalized, with four in ICU and one on a ventilator.![]()
Those numbers are down considerably from the peak of the Delta surge, which had a high of 16 patients in the ICU, 12 on ventilators, and 69 COVID patients hospitalized in a single day.
The island's population is currently 66% fully vaccinated, with 71% initiated. “We are seeing the positive effects of the vaccines in full effect,” said Mayor Mitch Roth. “Although the rise in numbers is certainly nothing to discount, we are comforted by the community’s response thus far and are confident that folks will continue to do the right thing to keep each other safe. Our administration remains ready to pivot if necessary but has no plans of placing any further restrictions on our residents at this time. Throughout the pandemic, we have worked hard to maintain a balanced approach that considers the working class, the kupuna, and the keiki to find equitable solutions for all.
"We understand that some folks would like to see fewer restrictions, and others would like to see more, but at this time, we believe that we have figured out what works, and we are committed to sticking to that. We know that we won’t make everyone happy. Still, we will continue to operate with the best interest of the County and its residents in mind as we navigate forward using science, data, and aloha as justification of our actions and policies.”
The statement says, "the County would like to applaud further the preventative measures the community has taken on their own accord to protect themselves and their loved ones throughout the pandemic."
Testing and vaccination sites remain readily available islandwide and can be found at hawaiicounty.gov/coronavirus. Boosters remain the best defense against serious illness, and residents are encouraged to get theirs today if they haven’t already.
The island's population is currently 66% fully vaccinated, with 71% initiated. “We are seeing the positive effects of the vaccines in full effect,” said Mayor Mitch Roth. “Although the rise in numbers is certainly nothing to discount, we are comforted by the community’s response thus far and are confident that folks will continue to do the right thing to keep each other safe. Our administration remains ready to pivot if necessary but has no plans of placing any further restrictions on our residents at this time. Throughout the pandemic, we have worked hard to maintain a balanced approach that considers the working class, the kupuna, and the keiki to find equitable solutions for all.
"We understand that some folks would like to see fewer restrictions, and others would like to see more, but at this time, we believe that we have figured out what works, and we are committed to sticking to that. We know that we won’t make everyone happy. Still, we will continue to operate with the best interest of the County and its residents in mind as we navigate forward using science, data, and aloha as justification of our actions and policies.”
The statement says, "the County would like to applaud further the preventative measures the community has taken on their own accord to protect themselves and their loved ones throughout the pandemic."
Testing and vaccination sites remain readily available islandwide and can be found at hawaiicounty.gov/coronavirus. Boosters remain the best defense against serious illness, and residents are encouraged to get theirs today if they haven’t already.
To read comments, add your own, and like this story, see www.facebook.com/kaucalendar/. See latest print edition at kaucalendar.com.
THE NEW LIMIT FOR INDOOR GATHERINGS AS A RESULT OF THE COVID SURGE IS TEN. Hawaiʻi County has reduced the indoor gathering limit as COVID-19 cases continue to surge statewide.
The limit is down from 25 persons allowed indoors, as was previously specified in Mayor's First Amended COVID-19 Emergency Rule No.19, originally signed on Nov. 30.![]()
Mayor's Second Amended COVID-19 Emergency Rule No.19, signed Dec. 27 by Managing Director Lee Lord, makes no other changes to the emergency rules. Lord signed for Mayor Mitch Roth due to Roth's mandatory quarantine related to the mayor testing positive for COVID-19.
"We know people are going to gather to celebrate the New Year, and we want to ensure that if they do, that they do so outdoors, where it's safe," said Mayor Mitch Roth. "The new variant is extremely transmissible and is spreading quickly. The science says that outdoor gatherings are much safer than indoors, and we would like to encourage all of our residents to adhere to the new limits. We don't want to roll back any other restrictions, and the only way for us to ensure that we don't have to is by doing what's in the best interest of everyone in our community – mask up, distance when possible, and stay home if you feel sick."
The County of Hawaiʻi would also like to remind residents of the importance of getting their booster shots to combat the surge of COVID-19 in our community. Boosters are free and are being administered islandwide.
Visit hawaiicounty.gov/vaccination to find a distribution site.
The limit is down from 25 persons allowed indoors, as was previously specified in Mayor's First Amended COVID-19 Emergency Rule No.19, originally signed on Nov. 30.
"We know people are going to gather to celebrate the New Year, and we want to ensure that if they do, that they do so outdoors, where it's safe," said Mayor Mitch Roth. "The new variant is extremely transmissible and is spreading quickly. The science says that outdoor gatherings are much safer than indoors, and we would like to encourage all of our residents to adhere to the new limits. We don't want to roll back any other restrictions, and the only way for us to ensure that we don't have to is by doing what's in the best interest of everyone in our community – mask up, distance when possible, and stay home if you feel sick."
The County of Hawaiʻi would also like to remind residents of the importance of getting their booster shots to combat the surge of COVID-19 in our community. Boosters are free and are being administered islandwide.
Visit hawaiicounty.gov/vaccination to find a distribution site.
To read comments, add your own, and like this story, see www.facebook.com/kaucalendar/. See latest print edition at kaucalendar.com.
See the December and past issues of The Ka`u Calendar
KAʻŪ COFFEE MILL & VISITOR CENTER. Buy online at kaucoffeemill.com and in person at 96-2694 Wood Valley Road, daily, 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.
PUNALUʻU BAKESHOP online at bakeshophawaii.com and in-person 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m., seven days a week in x.
ALIʻI HAWAIʻI HULA HANDS COFFEE. Order by calling 928-0608 or emailing alihhhcoffee@yahoo.com.
AIKANE PLANTATION COFFEE COMPANY. Order online at aikaneplantation.com. Call 808-927-2252
MIRANDA'S FARMS KAʻŪ COFFEE. Order online at mirandafarms.com or, in person at 73-7136 Mamalahoa Hwy.
KUAHIWI RANCH STORE, in person. Shop weekdays, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., Sunday, 11 am to 3 p.m. at 95-5520 Hwy 11. Locally processed grass-fed beef, live meat chickens, and feed for cattle, goats, sheep, chickens, horses, dogs, and pigs. Call 929-7333 of 938-1625, email kaohi@kuahiwiranch.com.
DEPRESSED, ANXIOUS, NEED SOMEONE TO TALK TO? Call Department of Health's expanded Hawai‘i C.A.R.E.S. program at 1-800-753-6879 – the same number previously used by Crisis Line of Hawai‘i. Individuals in crisis can also text ALOHA to 741741, available 24/7.
LEARN SELF-CARE THROUGH Big Island Substance Abuse Council's Practice Self-Care Series. For additional series that feature refreshing wellness tips, follow the Behavioral Health & Homelessness Statewide Unified Response Group at facebook.com/bhhsurg
WOMEN'S COLLECTIVE OFFERS HEALTH PROGRAMS. Piko focuses on reproductive health; increasing access, respect, cultural competence, education, and choice. Pilina aims to grow membership and establish a culture of collaborative decision-making. Follow @kau_womens_health_collective. Contact rootsmedieshawaii@gmail.com. Call 808-450-0498.
YOGA WITH EMILY Catey Weiss, Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. at Volcano Art Center Niʻaulani Campus in Volcano Village. Advanced registration required; $5 per class. volcanoartcenter.org/events, 967-8222.
CHOOSE ALOHA FOR HOME is available to families, to provide a healthy way to grow together using neuroscience and positive psychology. Program uses a series of self-guided videos, activities, and "dinner table discussion topics." Sign up at chooselovemovement.org/choose-love-home.
EDUCATION
Register for Boys & Girls Club Mobile Outreach and Tutoring Programs at rb.gy/o1o2hy. For keiki grades 1-6. Contact Boys & Girls Club of the Big Island Administrative Office, Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., at (808) 961-5536 or email mobiletutoring@bgcbi.org or info@bgcbi.org.
ʻOhana Help Desk offers online How-To Guides for Chromebooks and iPads at rb.gy/8er9wm. ʻOhana Help Desk also available by phone, weekdays, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., Sundays from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Invite Park Rangers to Virtually Visit Classes, through connecting with teachers and home-schoolers with distance learning programs and virtual huakaʻi (field trips). Contact havo_education@nps.gov.
Public Libraries are open for WiFi, pick-up, and other services. Nāʻālehu open Monday and Wednesday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., Friday, 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Pāhala open Tuesday, noon to 7 p.m., Thursday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., limited entry into library with Wiki Visits. Schedule a Library Take Out time at picktime.com/hspls. Open for library card account help and reference assistance from the front door. WiFi available to anyone with a library card, from each library parking lot. See librarieshawaii.org.
Free Book Exchanges, at laundromats in Ocean View and Nāʻālehu, provided by Friends of the Kaʻū Libraries. Open to all. Keep the books, pass them on to other readers, or return them. Selection of books replenished weekly at both sites.
Read Report on Public Input about Disaster Recovery from damage during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption.View the Civic Engagement and Comment Analysis Report at rb.gy/awu65k.
Learn About Hawaiʻi's History & Culture through Papakilo Database, papakilodatabase.com.
Virtual Workshops on Hawaiʻi's Legislative Processes through Public Access Room. Sign up by contacting (808) 587-0478 or par@capitol.hawaii.gov. Ask questions and discuss all things legislative in a non-partisan environment. Attend Coffee Hour with PAR: Fridays at 3 p.m. on Zoom, meeting ID 990 4865 9652 or click zoom.us/j/99048659652. PAR staff will be available to answer questions and to discuss the legislative process. Anyone wanting to listen in without taking part in discussions is welcome. Learn more at lrb.hawaii.gov/public-access-room.
Online Directory at shopbigisland.com, co-sponsored by County of Hawai‘i, has a signup sheet for local businesses to fill in the blanks. The only requirement is a physical address on this island.
COMMUNITY
Food Assistance: Apply for The Volcano School of Arts & Sciences COVID-19 Family Relief Funds. Funded by Volcano Community Association, and members of the VSAS Friends and Governing Boards, who have donated, the fund supplies KTA or Dimple Cheek Gift Cards, or gift cards to other locally owned business, to VSAS families in need. Contact Kim Miller at 985-8537, kmiller@volcanoschool.net. Contributions to the fund can be sent in by check to: VSAS, PO Box 845, Volcano, HI 96785 – write Relief Fund in the memo. See volcanoschool.net
ENROLL CHILDREN, from first through eighth grade, in Kula ʻAmakihi, a program from Volcano School of the Arts & Sciences. It started Aug. 3. Call 808-985- 9800 or visit www.volcanoschool.net.
WALK THROUGH A GUIDED NATURE TRAIL & Sculpture Garden, Mondays, 9:30 a.m. at Volcano Art Center Niʻaulani Campus in Volcano Village. No reservations for five or fewer – limited to ten people. Free; donations appreciated. Email programs@volcanoartcenter.org. Garden is open to walk through at one's own pace, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. weekdays. www.volcanoartcenter.org. Call 967-8222.
KAʻŪ ART GALLERY is open Wednesdays and Saturdays from 9 a.m. - 3 p.m. in Nāʻālehu. It features and sells works by local artists and offers other gift items. "We are always looking to collaborate with local artists in our community," said assistant Alexandra Kaupu. Artists with an interest in being featured at Kaʻū Art Gallery and Gift Shop, contact gallery owner and director Corrine Kaupu at kauartgallery@hawaiiantel.biz.
GOLF & MEMBERSHIPS for Discovery Harbour Golf Course and its Clubhouse: The Club offers Social Memberships, with future use of the clubhouse and current use of the pickleball courts as well as walking and running on specified areas of the golf course before 8 a.m. and after 3 p.m. to enjoy the panoramiocean views. Golf memberships range from unlimited play for the avid golfer to casual play options. Membership is required to play and practice golf on the course. All golf memberships include Social Membership amenities. Membership fees are designed to help underwrite programs and improvements to the facilities.Call 808-731-5122 or stop by the Clubhouse during business hours, 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. daily at 94-1581 Kaulua Circle. Email clubatdiscoveryharbour@gmail.com. See The Club at Discovery Harbour Facebook page.
ALOHA FRIDAY MARKETPLACE, hosted by Main Street, is from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m., grounds of The Old Shirakawa Estate in Waiʻohinu. It features: Made in Hawai'i Products, Organic Produce, Creative Crafts, ARt, Flower and Plants, Food, Ka`u Coffee, Gluen Free Low Carb Goodies, Wellness Services and Products, Clothing, Hand Crafted Treats, Music and more. Vendor and customer inquiries: AlohaFridayMarket@gmail.com.
VOLCANO FARMERS MARKET, Cooper Center, Volcano Village on Sundays. 6 a.m. to 10 a.m., with much local produce, baked goods, food to go, island beef and Hawai‘i Coffee. Cooper Center's EBT Machine, used at the Farmer's Market, is out of service until further notice. EBT is used for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly Food Stamps. Call 808-967-7800.
OCEAN VIEW COMMUNITY MARKET, open Saturdays and Thursdays, 6:30 a.m. to 2 p.m., on the corner of Kona Drive and Highway 11, where Thai Grindz is located. Managed by Mark Council. Masks mandatory. 100-person limit, social distancing required. Gate unlocked for vendors at 5:30 a.m., $15 dollars, no reservations needed. Parking in upper lot only. Vendors must provide own sanitizer. Food vendor permits required. Carpooling encouraged.
O KAʻŪ KĀKOU MARKET, in Nāʻālehu, open Wednesday, and Saturday, 8 a.m. to noon. Limit of 50 customers per hour, 20 vendor booths, with 20 feet of space between vendors. Masks and hand sanitizing required, social distancing enforced. Contact Sue Barnett, OKK Market Manager, at 808-345-9374 (voice or text) or kaufarmer@aol.com for more and to apply to vend. See facebook.com/OKauKakouMarket.
OCEAN VIEW SWAP MEET is open at Ocean View makai shopping center, near Mālama Market. Hours for patrons are 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturday and Sunday. Vendor set-up time is 5 a.m. Masks required.
BUY LOCAL GIFTS ONLINE, IN-PERSON
VOLCANO ART CENTER ONLINE, in person. Shop at Niʻaulani Campus in Volcano Village, Monday through Friday, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Gallery in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, open Wednesday through Sunday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Virtual Shopping Appointments offered via Skype or FaceTime. Book at volcanoartcenter.org/shop for $5. Shop online gallery 24/7. Orders shipped or free local pickup available. See the VAC Virtual Classroom, which features over 90 videos. See volcanoartcenter.org/events, call 967-8222.
